Glendale Park October Update

 

URA released their 3rd Quarter data coupled with flash data provided by SRX and 99.co. 

Condo rents went up by 3.3 per cent last month, compared with 3.2 per cent the month before, with those in the city fringe growing at the fastest pace at 3.9 per cent.

Condo rental volume picked up pace, rising by 9.8 per cent to an estimated 4,760 units last month, reversing the drop from the month before.

Rental price from 2021 till now

This is the first time we see a convex uptrend of rental price supporting the property price increase.

Rental chart from 2006 till now

For Glendale Park, in terms of psf transacted in September, units with no double vol ceiling and balcony/outdoor space transacted at 1,523k psf. My purchase price in 2019 was S$1,147 psf which means an approximate capital appreciation of 33%(S$388,408), not including rental. Glendale rental data in the month of September has not been released, but I suspect there will be numerous 4k and above rental transactions for my unit size from talking to property agents that specialize in the Hillview area.

It seems like Sg property asset at current time is truly an effective hedge against inflation as compared to the other inflation hedging assets like gold, equity, crypto which are all underperforming. My view is, this may be a short term event, because property prices globally has corrected this quarter. 

Long term holding especially for freehold sg property assets should be encouraged especially if you bought it at sub 1.2k psf because compared to the recent OCR leasehold new launches that have transacted at 2k psf and above, the margin of safety is there and the increase in rental gives the market the support they need. But we have to be wary of the increased mortgage rate too, this will likely be a test to see if Singaporeans are cash rich or not.

The reason why Singapore property price is still so resilient is likely due to expats and pmets flocking into Singapore for work coupled with sg government new 30k a month EP pass that will be available next year, article here. Taiwan is at potential war with China, China covid zero is scaring everyone away including their own citizens and Hong Kong is still struggling with covid, only recently have they considered opening up. So for expats wanting to work in South East Asia, Singapore is the top choice for them, because we opened up the earliest and we are still the top 3 or 4 countries in the world with the highest gdp per capita.

If expats and pmets are willing to rent at a higher price due to undersupply, the PRs could be priced out and they will in turn consider to buy instead of rent, hence increasing the property prices here. Due to hdb prices also moving up, I am sure there are a lot of hdb upgraders that will add into the pool of demand.

Another data point we should watch closely is the Singapore unemployment rate. Which is currently at 2 years low:

If we see the unemployment rate in Singapore go up, means likely a recession is coming? Recession is never good for property prices here.

Next month, the Hillview government land sale plot auction result will be out. Base on the view of Orange Tee CEO, he anticipates six to eight bidders with a bid price between $950 and $1,050 psf ppr, which may translate to an eventual selling price of around $1,800 to $1,900 psf. Lets wait and see.

Distance from Glendale to Hillv2 Mall

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