Glendale Park November Update and Stocks

 

Latest transaction on URA shows another all time high psf of S$1,579. With our purchase price of S$1,147 in 2019 that means a capital appreciation of 37.7%(S$446,256).

Rental continues to be strong with high 3s to 4k range for my size. Sg property this year has practically outperformed every major asset class in the world, including S&P, STI etf, Hsi and even Gold.

I am cognizant with the fact that risk free rates are rising very rapidly. Interest rate futures is now pricing May23 fed rate to be 5.15% after the latest fed meeting, a new high. This means continued sustained elevation of mortgage rate which may equate to less liquidity in the property market. 

Property prices in the US, UK, HK and China are also correcting primarily due to the elevated risk free rates and fear of recession. So I can deduce that Singapore will not be an odd one out, and if I have a leasehold property, I too would have sold it now at all time high to take advantage of the superb performance. 

Why? Because even though the rental are surging, there is a peak to the quantum of rental rates due to affordability, and even at this current rate, the net rental yield is still lower than our Sg Tbill risk free rate(Which I predict will continue to rise next year). 

Do also note that property tax will increase next year and the year after this. This will reduce ones net rental yield. 

I mentioned previously about the new Hillview Rise GLS site here. Seems like the result is out. That site attracted four bids. The top bid of S$320.78 million was jointly submitted by Far East Civil Engineering and Sekisui House. This equates to a tendered sale price of S$1,024 psf ppr. If we use EdgeProp's Landlens analytics tool to calculate the selling price, it comes out to S$2,042 psf. 

This is mind boggling, a 99 years leasehold boutique site much further away from the mrt will sell at over 2k psf, while a freehold low plot ratio big development condo right next to the mrt is still transacting at only 1.5k psf.

My stock portfolio is still predominantly HK stocks, primarily focusing on Alibaba, Tencent, Kingsoft, AAG now. These stocks are severely discounted in terms of sum of parts which I have talked about previously(dyodd). Even though the geopolitical risk in China is at an inhumane level, I will still continue to add position into these stocks and have a long term perspective. Is the current Chinese stock market demise due to xjp? I think no, its a natural phenomena of a strengthening dollar. Historically, a strengthening dollar will mean sustained correction in stocks of developing countries and a weakening dollar will mean a sustained uptrend for them. Thomas Haye talked about it in this YouTube video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tTTr4aj5pM