Is the Stock Market Random?



I remember reading an interesting discussion about this quite sometime ago. Is the Stock Market completely random(filled with uncertainty that is impossible to measure), fully deterministic(filled with uncertainty that can be ultimately measured) or a mix of both?

When I say "deterministic", I mean that it is possible to predict this component with certainty, from historical precedent. Like if we can measure all the forces and momentum surrounding a dice being rolled, we can consistently know its value. So a dice being rolled in that context, isn't random but fully deterministic.

It is illogical to think that every possible future is equally likely. Some future are more likely than others. We all accept that the movement of the markets isn't predictable with extreme accuracy, just like the weather forecast. There will always be a varying degree of uncertainty in it.


Technical Analysis is an extraction of predictable components. For random short term components, there's the RSI or MACD, For deterministic components, there is long term moving averages. However, random components also depend upon so many things that we cannot know at that time.

If science ultimately concludes that our universe is fully deterministic(with all the initial conditions, at hand we can know exactly what is going to happen at time t), then the concept of a free market will cease to exist. What do you think?


1 comment :

  1. eToro is the ultimate forex trading platform for beginning and pro traders.

    ReplyDelete