Portfolio Review June 2020



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Bench marking myself against STI and World Index:

For last month's portfolio review click here 

Year to date:
STI Index: -12.19%
World Index: +0.35%
My Portfolio: -6.6%

Three years trailing:
STI Index: -10.84%
World Index: +15.54
My Portfolio: +10.7%




Year to date, I outperformed STI by 5.59% and under performed the World Index by 6.25%. Three years trailing, I outperformed STI by 21.54% and under performed the World Index by 4.84%.

Portfolio composition:

Transactions:

Added more APT Satellite(HK:1045), Dream Intl(HK:1126), Tracker Fund(HK:2800), SwireProperties(HK:1972), FSY(HK:1448) and Alibaba(HK:9988)

Commentary:

STI ETF(SG:ES3) saw a 27% rise from the March lows likely due to iShare MSCI STI demand(link here). This is likely due to the close correlations that our local banks have with the US banks and also funds showing interest in Singapore after the Hong Kong new security law and continued protest. 


The stock market is a pricing in machine and should be decoupled from the real economy. Many would be surprise by the recent bullishness even though our economy is still on shut down mode till end June. I am guessing the market is pricing in the declining global covid death rate and the potential for a vaccine(thanks to Moderna and CansinoB).

Great Eastern(SG:G07) saw a 26.52% rise from the March lows. GEH had achieved CAGR of 7.5% in its GWP, growing to S$11.77 billion in 2019 from S$ 6.6 billion in 2012. 

GE is a cashcow, its FCF, that comprise of its operating cash flow and investing income(dividend and interest income) is around $14.32 per share on a four years annualized basis. That is around 1.45x Price/FCF. The bulk of its FCF is reinvested into investment assets first before paying out the rest to shareholders. That is why their investment assets and income have been growing steadily over the years.



OCBC owns almost 88% of GE and Samuel Tsien the CEO of OCBC has always been willing to buy more GE whenever the bank has the chance(link here). OCBC have tried to privatize GE three times already since 2004, either via share swap with OCBC or a full cash offer valuing it at 1.51x embedded value in 2006.

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