The weather man never fails to give the most politically correct answers to all questions in life.
The weather man is always correct
The weather man never fails to give the most politically correct answers to all questions in life.
S chips
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S-chips seems to have made a bad name for themselves these past few years. A number of them have been caught with being less truthful.
How can one justify the validity of the fundamentals of S-chips now? Maybe there are some signs that we can look out for. For example, look out for companies with excessive cash or debt. Be cautious of S-chips that shows large cash reserves, but refuses to pay dividends and in turn calls for right issues.
I doubt these signs can be fool proof though. The best way to prevent being caught is to avoid them altogether. To each his own.
CapitaComm TA
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My previous TA on CapitaComm here talks about a possible Rounding Bottom Reversal on its weekly chart.
My CapitaComm TA view
NAV: 1.6865
PE: 10.95
Total issued paid up shares: 2,876,746,000
Mkt Price: 1.495
Distribution Yield: 5.412%
Since my previous TA on CapitaComm, price has moved up from 1.47 to 1.49.
From the chart around late May, notice the 20dma crossing the 50dma downwards(Deadcross), which initiated the down trend.
Current uptrend looks very consistent.
Today we can see the 20dma crossing the 50dma upwards(Goldencross). A Golden crossover involves a security's short-term moving average (such as 20-day moving average) breaking above its long-term moving average (such as 50-day moving average) or resistance level.
KepLand Cup and Handle Formation?
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My Kepland TA view
NAV: 4.0579
PE: 6.767
Total issued paid up shares: 1,545,913,000
Mkt Price: 3.67
Distribution Yield: 3.266%
Kepland showing signs of a possible Cup and Handle Formation. The Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. The handle represents the final consolidation/pullback before the breakout. There should be a substantial increase in volume on the breakout above the handle's resistance for the formation to be confirmed. To each his own.
Is the Stock Market Random?
I remember reading an interesting discussion about this quite sometime ago. Is the Stock Market completely random(filled with uncertainty that is impossible to measure), fully deterministic(filled with uncertainty that can be ultimately measured) or a mix of both?
When I say "deterministic", I mean that it is possible to predict this component with certainty, from historical precedent. Like if we can measure all the forces and momentum surrounding a dice being rolled, we can consistently know its value. So a dice being rolled in that context, isn't random but fully deterministic.
It is illogical to think that every possible future is equally likely. Some future are more likely than others. We all accept that the movement of the markets isn't predictable with extreme accuracy, just like the weather forecast. There will always be a varying degree of uncertainty in it.
Technical Analysis is an extraction of predictable components. For random short term components, there's the RSI or MACD, For deterministic components, there is long term moving averages. However, random components also depend upon so many things that we cannot know at that time.
If science ultimately concludes that our universe is fully deterministic(with all the initial conditions, at hand we can know exactly what is going to happen at time t), then the concept of a free market will cease to exist. What do you think?
Noble Group TA
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NAV: 0.9105
PE: 11.545
Total issued paid up shares: 6,627,079,000
Mkt Price: 0.945
Distribution Yield: 2.305%
Noble has being testing its 100dma(0.951) for 9 times already, but failed to convincingly break out with volume. Stochastic and volumeOsc showing bearish divergences. When the VolumeOsc reaches an extreme and starts to reverse, it is indicating the potential for a reversal of the prevailing trend(Pring). To each his own.
My thoughts on budgeting, income and expenses
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I am penning down my current way of doing family budgeting, so as to compare how differently it would evolve 10 years from now.
I personally like to stick to two very basic general pointers: income and expenses.
1) Income can come from many sources, be it my work, rentals(optional), room rentals(optional), total fix dividend payout from stocks, fix deposits, bonds and interest from savings. I also include my spouse income and other more variable sources of income like year end bonuses(if it is guaranteed). Once finalized, I would try to get an accurate number of an average net income(after taxes) per month.
2) I categorize expenses into two groups.
First group of expenses are the predictable ones which rarely change, like insurance, utilities, levies, housing loans etc.
Second group of expenses like, food, transport, clothing are more variable and so I try to put a close estimated value to each of them. I put large, infrequent expenses like house repairs, car, computers etc in this group too.
3) Once I am done with that, I compare them and make sure they are at least equalized. If my expenses are more than my income, I would take action to stream line my second group of expenses.
I try to strife for a comfortable 10% or more income surplus to my expenses so that I can put that extra into savings. Once the amount of savings is deemed enough for another potential income vehicle, I would compound it back, in hopes of increasing my income.
Of course, both pointers cannot be put to the extreme, as my main goal ultimately is to have a comfortable life with my loved ones. Find the "Goldilocks zone" that is right for you.
STI TA
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This post is a continuation from my previous STI TA view here
My STI TA view
This is a zoomed in chart of the wedge that I drew on 18th September 2013. The day after I noticed a Bullish Wedge break out, STI broke out with a gap up before hitting the 3250 resistance that I talked about previously.
Price action today filled the gap that was created on 19th of September and closed with a "dragonfly doji".
This could mean a possible retracement tomorrow to refill the downward gap that was created today and subsequently a retest at 3250. If not, the 100dma support will be at 3188. To each his own.
DBS TA
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My DBS TA view
NAV: 13.2149
PE: 10.658
Total issued paid up shares: 2,442,617,000
Mkt Price: 16.64
Distribution Yield: 3.361%
DBS showing a possible Symmetrical Triangle(Continuation) pattern. The other two banks(OCBC & UOB) currently showing similar resemblance. This contracting wedge, like all triangles, is wide in the beginning and narrows over time to its apex. The price action should be contained within the triangle before a valid breakout occurs The breakout should be convincing with an expansion in volume.
Regardless of the nature of the pattern, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout. 100dma support at 16.33. To each his own.
Happy Birthday to myself.
Happy Birthday to myself! Another year older and hopefully another reason to celebrate life. Oprah Winfrey used to say that, "The more you praise and celebrate your life, the more there is in life to celebrate".
So on that note, I would like to wish all, who are celebrating their birthday today, a prosperous and healthy life ahead! Lets celebrate!
Dow -185.46
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I have always agreed to the saying that, the stock market is what the masses make out to be. Despite the euphoric enthusiasm in the wake of the Fed's decision not to taper down on its bond buying program, mass market sentiments was directed to political confrontation over Obamacare and the federal budget as the logical reasons to reverse course.
Of course one can assume that the temporary foregoing of this tapering could mean the US economy is still in doldrums. Hence for me personally, I dont put too much faith in "news". They can change as an when they want to.
In this new age of volatility, I also tell my friends to exit on the basis of profit and not price potential. If the profit is enough for you, take it. If its not quite enough but the stock price has appreciated too fast, take half of it. Thats my philosophy in trading, as Mr Market has no emotions.
In this new age of volatility, I also tell my friends to exit on the basis of profit and not price potential. If the profit is enough for you, take it. If its not quite enough but the stock price has appreciated too fast, take half of it. Thats my philosophy in trading, as Mr Market has no emotions.
CapitaComm TA
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My CapitaComm TA view
NAV: 1.6865
PE: 10.95
Total issued paid up shares: 2,876,746,000
Mkt Price: 1.47
Distribution Yield: 5.412%
The Rounding Bottom is a long-term reversal pattern that is best suited for weekly charts. It represents a long consolidation period that turns a bearish bias to a bullish bias. Price action broke 100dma(1.45) and the neckline resistance today. Resistance turn support now at 1.47. If price action closes at 1.47 or higher today, a possible target will be at 1.53 next. To each his own.
The Usefulness of Good Till Date(GTD) and Good Till Maximum(GTM)
SGX and MAS have recently approved the use of GTM and GTD orders for retail clients since 15th of April. Many friends of mine have been asking me about the usefulness of this two functions. I will give my 2 cents here.
Usually for retailers, their validity is by day, which means you queue an order within the market day and it expires. Which means you will have to re queue again when market ends if you want the order queue to be in again the next day.
What GTD and GTM does is basically to carry forward unexecuted orders for a maximum of 30 calender days. GTD lets you specify a day within the 30 days and GTM carries forward until the full 30 days.
Do also note that for GTM/GTD orders, you cannot amend or cancel after market ends. You can only amend or cancel the order the next day at 8.30am onwards.
So whats so impressive you might ask? Well GTM/GTD orders are long dated which means there are never off the market.
If you wish to sell a particular stock at a price target that is hard to be done mainly due the the exorbitant sell queue infront of you, you can use GTM/GTD. As every day after market ends, your queue will not expire and it will be pushed infront of queues that have expired. This usually means that, after a few days, you will find your queue in front of the rest.
A very useful tool to have in my opinion. So do make sure you have a platform that supports these two functions.
QE3 tapering delayed
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Was pleasantly surprised by the Fed's decision last night to delay tapering. Which means its US$85m monthly bond purchases will be maintained. The best short term scenario I would expect.
Why did the Fed delay tapering of bond purchases?
There might be a few possible reasons, but I would think that the main reason for me is unemployment and inflation. Both are too inverse. Inflation is still very low and employment still very high. There are no signs of reversal for both in near term. Hence it will be quite silly for the Feds to do anything to further worsen the general outlook of the market.
If the general economical outlook shows improvement from now till December(next Fed meeting), perhaps a reduction in the volume of asset purchases will be favored. Until then, we should continue to enjoy a short term bull run. To each his own.
STI surged and hit my target at 3250 and Reits in general appreciated from the news today.
Reits to ride on for the yield pull back
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I am usually more of a value investor. Current situation calls for a possible pull back of US 10 year yield. This scenario would happen if the up and coming announcement for the tapering of QE3 is superficial/gradual or delayed. A logical thought progression, but still bounded by probability.
This, in my opinion, calls for a potential price appreciation for reit counters. Here are a few fundamentally undervalued counters that I think could be worth the ride(Ignoring those that has already appreciated this past few weeks). I will be willing to hold these medium to long term seeing that they are defensive in nature. To each his own.
SoilbuildBizReit
DPU 4.37cts
Mkt Price: 0.725
Yield: 8.093%
Nav: $0.80
Gearing: 29.90%
AIMSAMPI Reit
DPU 2.5cts
Mkt price: $1.475
Yield: 6.78%
NAV: $1.501
Gearing: 25.40%
Reason: Pure local exposure with discount to book value, decent yield(<6%) and low borrowing.
STI TA
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My STI TA view
STI currently showing a Bullish Falling Wedge Reversal break out. Price action convincingly broke out from its upper resistance line and 100dma(3190). This is a bullish pattern. Current target resistance is at previous high(3250). To each his own.
CapMallsAsia TA
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My CapMallsAsia TA view
NAV: 1.7828
PE: 14.009
Total issued paid up shares: 3,892,493,000
Mkt Price: 1.95
Possible Double Bottom Reversals observed, but until key
resistance is broken(2.0 resistance break), a reversal cannot be confirmed.
If resistance break(2.0) is broken convincingly with volume, we could see a tgt of 2.26 previous high(Jan 2013). To each his own.
If resistance break(2.0) is broken convincingly with volume, we could see a tgt of 2.26 previous high(Jan 2013). To each his own.
Marco Polo TA
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My Marco Polo TA view
NAV: 0.468
PE: 5.989
Total issued paid up shares: 340,750,000
Mkt Price: 0.375
Price action showing a stochastic/RSI bearish divergence. Resistance at 100dma(0.382). Dwindling low volume. To each his own.